(revised Sept. 11, 2014)
Based on currently available information, being reported by WHO and CDC, by the third week of September 2014, there could be as many as 5500 cases of Ebola in West Africa, 11000 by the third week of October, and 22000 by the third week of November. That would imply at least 11000 total deaths by mid-December.
And this may end up being a modest 'best case' scenario.
God forbid!
Yet, this appears to have been foreseen by an expert with first-hand knowledge of the situation as described below.
A Desperate Call for Help
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/10/world/africa/tracing-ebolas-breakout-to-an-african-2-year-old.html
- including these words, 'By June and July, Sierra Leone was becoming the center of the outbreak.
At the government hospital in Kenema, Dr. Sheik Umar Khan was leading the efforts to treat patients and control the epidemic.
But he was desperate for supplies: chlorine for disinfection, gloves, goggles, protective suits, rudimentary sugar and salt solutions to fight dehydration and give patients a chance to survive. Early in July, he emailed friends and former medical school classmates in the United States, asking for their help and sending a spreadsheet listing what he needed, and what he had. Many of the lines in the “available” column were empty.
One of his requests was for body bags: 3,000 adult, 2,000 child.
Before his friends could send the supplies, Dr. Khan contracted Ebola himself. He died on July 29.'
President Obama has recently advised West Africans to use proper protective equipment when dealing with Ebola patients. If they had it they would presumably use it.
Dr. Khan was warning of 5000 potential deaths in just one of the several countries struggling to contain this disease. As of September 7th the estimated total is already roughly 2300 fatalities for five countries.
For an academic risk assessment see http://currents.plos.org/outbreaks/article/assessing-the-international-spreading-risk-associated-with-the-2014-west-african-ebola-outbreak/
Lord Jesus, have mercy! Heal the sick, calm those who are anxious, give wisdom, skill and endurance to all who are looking after the afflicted and to those who are tasked to preserve order in a time of fear and extreme need. Amen.
- found in Jesus the Nazarene, the One who calls Himself the Way, the Truth and the Life - as we use our whole heart, soul, mind and strength in His service.
Wednesday, September 3, 2014
Saturday, August 23, 2014
On the Persecution of Christians Today
In my 57 years, I don't remember ever seeing, until this week, a top news media item, written by a minister of the gospel. Considering the details, how could (Anglican) Canon Andrew White do any less than bear witness to the truth. People are dying simply because they refuse to give up their faith in Jesus. Sound the alarm! Pray! God help both them and us to react according to our means and God's direction. I have recently donated and recommend the frrme.org website.
(Please read this link http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2720983/Vicar-Baghdad-We-need-military-actions-NOW.html )
Pray for God's people and their persecutors. Pray for all innocents caught in the snares of the wicked. Iraq and Syria are merely two peaks on the top of the iceberg. From Liberia and Nigeria, to Sudan and Egypt, to Saudi Arabia and Chechnya, to Gaza and Israel, to Iran and Pakistan, to China and North Korea, to Brazil and East Timor, to Russia and the Ukraine, to Europe and Scandinavia and indeed to Britain and the Americas, our enemy, the devil, prowls the whole earth like a roaring lion seeking to devour. He is the sower of division and confusion. He is the Father of Lies, and for a time, the god of this world, of ISIS or DA'ISH, of FASCISM, of MORAL RELATIVISM, of HAMAS, of REBELLION, of HERESY, of SCHISM and of all other forms of SIN.(Please read this link http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2720983/Vicar-Baghdad-We-need-military-actions-NOW.html )
In the spiritual battles which rage believers are given both armor and guidance. Put on the gospel armor: the helmet of Salvation, the breastplate of Righteousness and the belt of Truth. Don't take it off. Make sure it's tight as it needs to be and put it right back in place when the enemy knocks it off. Don't forget that on your feet you wear the Preparation of the Good News of God's Peace and that in your hands and your mouth you are equipped with a Mighty Spiritual Sword, The Word of God.
Stand firm and remember that Our God, the God of Abraham, Isaac and Jacob is infinitely Greater than any other pretender. His Merciful Love is Everlasting. He is the Sun of Righteousness, the all-consuming Fire. March Forth. Don't give up. God's will shall prevail.
Even so, Come Lord, JESUS...YESHUA!
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Sunday, August 10, 2014
West Africa's Ebola outbreak
O Lord, heal the sick and give wisdom, skill and endurance to all who are working to bring healing. Protect and restore hope to all affected communities, and may those who are helped give glory and praise to you, through Christ Jesus.
Sarah Dilorenzo, The Associated Press
Published Friday, June 20, 2014 9:00AM EDT
Last Updated Friday, June 20, 2014 12:46PM EDT
Last Updated Friday, June 20, 2014 12:46PM EDT
DAKAR, Senegal -- The Ebola outbreak ravaging West Africa is "totally out of control," according to a senior official for Doctors Without Borders, who says the medical group is stretched to the limit in its capacity to respond. International organizations and the governments involved need to send in more health experts and to increase the public education messages about how to stop the spread of the disease, Bart Janssens, the director of operations for the group in Brussels, told The Associated Press on Friday.
Ebola has already been linked to more than 330 deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, according to the latest numbers from the World Health Organization. The outbreak, which began in Guinea either late last year or early this year, had appeared to slow before picking up pace again in recent weeks, including spreading to the Liberian capital for the first time. "I'm absolutely convinced that this epidemic is far from over and will continue to kill a considerable amount of people, so this will definitely end up the biggest ever," he said.
The multiple locations of the outbreak and its movement across borders make it one of the "most challenging Ebola outbreaks ever," Fadela Chaib, a spokeswoman for the World Health Organization, said earlier in the week.
But Janssens' description of the Ebola outbreak was even more alarming, and he warned that the governments affected had not recognized the gravity of the situation.
The governments involved and international agencies are definitely struggling to keep up with the severity of the outbreak, said Krishnan of Plan, which is providing equipment to the three affected countries and spreading information about how people can protect themselves against the disease. But he noted that the disease is striking in one of the world's poorest regions, where public health systems are already fragile. "The affected countries are at the bottom of the human development index," he said in an emailed statement. "Ebola is seriously crippling their capacities to respond effectively in containing the spread."
"The situation requires a more effective response," said Janssens of Doctors Without Borders. "With more than 40 international staff currently on the ground and four treatment centres, Doctors Without Borders has reached its limit to respond," he said.
"It's the first time in an Ebola epidemic where (Doctors Without Borders) teams cannot cover all the needs, at least for treatment centres," he said.
The disease typically strikes sparsely populated areas in central or eastern Africa, where it spreads less easily, he said. By contrast, the epicenter of this outbreak is near a major regional transport hub, the Guinean city of Gueckedou.
He said the only way to stop the disease's spread is to persuade people to come forward when symptoms occur and to avoid touching the sick and dead. "There is still not a real change of behaviour of the people," he said. "So a lot of sick people still remain in hiding or continue to travel. And there is still news that burial practices are remaining dangerous."
Associated Press writer Jonathan Paye-Layleh contributed to this report from Monrovia, Liberia
Ebola has already been linked to more than 330 deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, according to the latest numbers from the World Health Organization. The outbreak, which began in Guinea either late last year or early this year, had appeared to slow before picking up pace again in recent weeks, including spreading to the Liberian capital for the first time. "I'm absolutely convinced that this epidemic is far from over and will continue to kill a considerable amount of people, so this will definitely end up the biggest ever," he said.
The multiple locations of the outbreak and its movement across borders make it one of the "most challenging Ebola outbreaks ever," Fadela Chaib, a spokeswoman for the World Health Organization, said earlier in the week.
But Janssens' description of the Ebola outbreak was even more alarming, and he warned that the governments affected had not recognized the gravity of the situation.
The governments involved and international agencies are definitely struggling to keep up with the severity of the outbreak, said Krishnan of Plan, which is providing equipment to the three affected countries and spreading information about how people can protect themselves against the disease. But he noted that the disease is striking in one of the world's poorest regions, where public health systems are already fragile. "The affected countries are at the bottom of the human development index," he said in an emailed statement. "Ebola is seriously crippling their capacities to respond effectively in containing the spread."
"The situation requires a more effective response," said Janssens of Doctors Without Borders. "With more than 40 international staff currently on the ground and four treatment centres, Doctors Without Borders has reached its limit to respond," he said.
"It's the first time in an Ebola epidemic where (Doctors Without Borders) teams cannot cover all the needs, at least for treatment centres," he said.
The disease typically strikes sparsely populated areas in central or eastern Africa, where it spreads less easily, he said. By contrast, the epicenter of this outbreak is near a major regional transport hub, the Guinean city of Gueckedou.
He said the only way to stop the disease's spread is to persuade people to come forward when symptoms occur and to avoid touching the sick and dead. "There is still not a real change of behaviour of the people," he said. "So a lot of sick people still remain in hiding or continue to travel. And there is still news that burial practices are remaining dangerous."
Associated Press writer Jonathan Paye-Layleh contributed to this report from Monrovia, Liberia
CTV news picked up this story: http://www.ctvnews.ca/health/west-africa-s-ebola-outbreak-is-totally-out-of-control-1.1878133#ixzz39NdcFcSv
As of Aug 9, 2014 the suspected death toll had reached at least 954, much lower than the number who die annually from influenza, but still of grave concern because of the 60 to 90 % mortality rate for all cases.
See also http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/tracing-ebolas-breakout-to-an-african-2-year-old/article19981276/
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